Talking about luck and opportunities

In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman explores the concept of luck. 

Kahneman highlights how people underestimate the influence of luck and overestimate the role of individual skill and effort, in areas where luck has a significant role in the outcomes. This bias leads to a misunderstanding of the randomness and unpredictability in many situations. He points out that in many aspects of life, such as business success, financial investments, and even sports, outcomes that are perceived as the result of skill may, in reality, be heavily influenced by luck.

It is important to take the meaning of this in a way that is not unambiguous. Indeed there are situations where luck has a significant role in the results of the process, however, a high level of skill and effort may increase the probability of luck assisting you and lead you to success, instead of going against you.

Although luck is not science, I love looking at luck as a formula that is composed of the following arguments: proactivity, effort, courage (seizing opportunities), and regression to the mean (a concept we discussed in one of the previous learning hours).

Proactivity creates more chances to succeed. For example, imagine a scenario where you win a prize for every person you find with a red bench in their backyard. If you proactively search every yard in your village, you’ll significantly increase your chances of winning compared to someone who doesn’t take action. Of course, this approach requires effort—going from house to house takes time and energy. While this example might sound simple, it mirrors our approach to life. People often seen as “lucky” have been proactive and worked hard to create their opportunities. Luck rarely finds you while sitting on the sofa—at least, most of the time.

Courage also plays a critical role. Continuing with the red bench example, some benches might be hidden behind hedges, requiring you to press someone’s intercom or knock on their door to confirm their existence. Similarly, in life, opportunities often remain hidden and require additional effort and courage to uncover and pursue.

Another important factor is regression to the mean. This statistical phenomenon describes how an extreme result tends to move closer to the average on subsequent attempts. In our metaphor, this means that even if you find two or three red benches quickly, it wouldn’t be surprising if the next attempts yield fewer results, closer to the average—or even below it.

Luck is also related to momentum. We can see this in football: when a team plays proactively and builds momentum on the pitch, it creates more chances. Often, this translates into scoring more goals and conceding fewer.

In summary, while luck may seem like a mysterious or magical force, our actions, proactivity, effort, courage, and understanding of statistical patterns like regression to the mean—can significantly sway the odds in our favor. By embracing these concepts, we not only improve our chances of being “lucky” but also learn to recognize and appreciate the hidden opportunities that require our courage and effort to uncover.